Unsolicited Golf Tips: Birdies, Blunders & Byron Nelson Madness

Why your irons are underperforming, wild Byron Nelson predictions, and fresh golf news you actually want to read.

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Happy Valley Golf Team
April 30, 2025

Good morning. This is your Happy Valley Golf Team newsletter. Let’s get it!

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

  • Watch: The #1 mistake killing your iron distance-and how to fix it before your next round.

  • Test your knowledge with this week’s golf trivia (bragging rights included).

  • Birdie Bonanza: Dive into our irreverent CJ Cup Byron Nelson preview-Texas heat, low scores, and Scheffler’s homecoming drama.

  • Betting edge: Smart picks, sleeper values, and the best promos for this week’s action-packed tournament.

Unsolicited Golf Tips

Golf Trivia

Which course has hosted the most U.S. Open Championships?

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Birdie Bonanza: The 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Preview

Get ready for a Texas-sized scorecard massacre. The PGA Tour heads to the Lone Star State this week for the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, where players typically go lower than your 401k in 2022.

The Basics

When: Thursday, May 1 - Sunday, May 4
Where: TPC Craig Ranch (McKinney, TX)
Purse: $9.9 million (up $400k from last year)
Winner's share: $1.78 million and 500 FedExCup points
Defending champ: Taylor Pendrith (-23)

The Course: Golf's Version of a Participation Trophy

TPC Craig Ranch is basically the golf equivalent of grade inflation - everybody gets to feel good about themselves. This par-71, 7,569-yard layout features some of the widest fairways on Tour and greens so receptive they might as well have "WELCOME" stamped on them.

Despite recent renovations (adding 150 yards and six new tee boxes), expect another birdie-fest. Last year, the course played to a 68.50 scoring average, making it the 43rd hardest course on Tour - or in non-golf speak, super easy.

Weather-wise, expect mixed conditions with potential rain and temperatures in the high 80s, which could soften the course further and lead to even more scoring opportunities.

Storylines to Watch

Scottie's Slump: World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler returns to his home state still hunting for his first W of 2025. Despite five top-10 finishes this season, victory has somehow eluded him - kind of like that one sock in your laundry.

Back-to-Back Dreams: Defending champ Taylor Pendrith aims to join the exclusive club of players who've gone back-to-back at this tournament. The last to do it? K.H. Lee in 2021-2022, who channeled his inner Tom Watson (Watson won three straight from 1978-1980).

Last Chance Saloon: This is the final event before the Truist Championship (a Signature Event), meaning it's the last chance for players to qualify via the Aon Swing 5 and Aon Next 10. Cue the desperation putts and stress-sweat-soaked polo shirts.

Field Notes

The tournament boasts a respectable field highlighted by some Texas favorites:

  • Scottie Scheffler: The hometown hero who shot back-to-back 64s here in 2023 before finishing T5.

  • Jordan Spieth: Another local boy who came oh-so-close in 2022, finishing runner-up to K.H. Lee by a single stroke.

  • Will Zalatoris: The Dallas resident seeking his first top-10 of 2025.

  • Sungjae Im: Coming in hot with a T5 at the Masters and T11 at the RBC Heritage.

💰 Poeches Corner

The Favorite: Scottie Scheffler enters as the overwhelming favorite at +280. Those odds are shorter than my patience for people who yell "MASHED POTATOES!" after tee shots. Craziness, don’t take anyone outright at those odds!

Value Picks:

  • Jordan Spieth (+1800) has excellent course history with a runner-up finish in 2022.

  • Taylor Pendrith (+3000) knows how to go low here, evidenced by last year's victory.

  • Stephan Jaeger (+4000) has quietly racked up three top-20 finishes at this event in the last five years.

Stats suggest putting prowess and birdie-making ability are the keys to success at TPC Craig Ranch, so back players who can roll the rock and go low.

If you're looking for a winner prediction backed by absolutely zero guarantees: Sungjae Im at +2200 seems like the perfect blend of form and value. Just don't blame us when he shoots 76 on Thursday.

Looking for the best place to place your bet? You can now view all our betting promos, for every book we work with, in once place!

Historical Perspective

TPC Craig Ranch doesn't discriminate when it comes to winners - the last four champions at this venue have finished between -23 and -26. The only consistent thread? You need to make approximately one billion birdies.

The key stats for success: Strokes Gained: Putting, Greens in Regulation, and Birdie or Better percentage. Translation: hit greens and make putts. Groundbreaking analysis, we know.

So grab your favourite beverage, settle in for four days of low scores, and watch as players turn a PGA Tour stop into what looks suspiciously like your local municipal course's member-guest tournament - just with much better players and significantly larger checks.

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Thanks for reading!

Enjoy the rest of your week,

Cody.