Tiger Roars Into TGL + Desert Millions: It's American Express Week

Desert Drama: $8.8M American Express Showdown + McIlroy vs Rahm in Dubai

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Happy Valley Golf Team
January 15, 2025

Good morning. This is your Happy Valley Golf Team newsletter. Let’s get it!

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

  • Looking to improve your short game? We have the perfect chipping drill.

  • The American Express: an $8.8M birdie-bonanza across three desert courses.

  • Defending amateur-turned-pro champ Nick Dunlap returns to the AmEx to face co-favorites Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im.

  • TGL tickets are going for how much?! 😳

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Desert Dues and Dollar Signs: Your Not-So-Serious Guide to The 2025 American Express

The PGA Tour's mainland debut for 2025 brings us to the sun-soaked Coachella Valley, where instead of flower crowns and Instagram influencers, we'll see visors and rangefinders at The American Express. With $8.8 million up for grabs, these golfers are chasing more green than just the putting surfaces.

The Setup

Three courses await our intrepid golfers like a choose-your-own-adventure book, except you have to play all of them: PGA West's Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. The Stadium Course, fresh off renovations, now features expanded greens and reimagined bunkers - because apparently, Pete Dye looked at his original design and thought, "You know what? This isn't cruel enough."

Players must navigate all three courses over the first three days before a 54 hole cut, with survivors returning to the Stadium Course for Sunday's final round.

The Field

World #1 Scottie Scheffler is sitting this one out (rumour has it he's still icing his hand from an overly aggressive high-five over the holidays), and Xander Schauffele made a last-minute withdrawal that had betting apps crying into their algorithms. However, we've still got Patrick Cantlay bringing his trademark poker face, Justin Thomas with his picture-perfect swing (and equally perfect hair), and Sungjae Im, who probably sleeps in the clubhouse because he never seems to take a week off.

The Defending Champion

Nick Dunlap returns to defend his 2024 title, where he became the first amateur winner since Phil Mickelson in 1991. Now a pro, Dunlap no longer has to pretend he doesn't want the prize money. He'll try to join the rare club of back-to-back winners, though this tournament has recently favoured longshots so random you'd have better odds picking lottery numbers. 3 of the last 5 winners had odds of +15000 or worse.

Nick Dunlap as he won the 2024 American Express as an amateur. Which means he did not get the $1.5 mill first prize 😳

Tournament History & Scoring

If you're a fan of watching golf scores that look more like basketball totals, you're in luck! Recent winning scores have been lower than a snake's belly in a wagon rut:

  • 2024: Nick Dunlap (-29) - practically stole the course record

  • 2023: Jon Rahm (-27) - made it look like mini-golf

  • 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23) - considered a "defensive" victory by local standards

Prize Money

The winner walks away with $1,584,000 - enough to buy a lifetime supply of those fancy alignment sticks or finally splurge on that overpriced driver (if they had to play for them). Even making the cut ensures enough cash to cover your caddie's tip and maybe a few rounds at the local muni.

The Favourites

Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im share favourite status at 12-1, with Sam Burns lurking at 14-1. Im arrives hotter than a Death Valley summer after his showing at The Sentry, while Burns is back to exorcise the demons of last year's finish, where his double bogey on 17 took him out of contention and was about as welcome as a snowman in the desert.

With weather perfect enough to make a meteorologist blush and courses groomed better than a Westminster show dog, we're all set for another desert classic. Just remember, in the Coachella Valley, the real hazards aren't the water or sand - it's the temptation to go full send on every hole while pretending you're not thinking about that post-round margarita at the 19th hole.

One and Done

Last week in our OAD picks we had Henley and Bradley finish in the top 10 and Conners miss the cut. Onwards and upwards this week..

Sam Burns: Burns has demonstrated strong form recently and has shown confidence on Pete Dye-designed courses, which is advantageous given the Stadium Course’s design. His ability to go low in birdie-fest tournaments makes him a solid choice for this event.

Sungjae Im: Im arrives at PGA West having just broken the PGA Tour record for most birdies in a single tournament with 34, indicating his current form is exceptional. He has a consistent record at The American Express, making the cut in all five appearances and securing top-20 finishes each time. His recent performance and familiarity with the courses make him a strong contender. 

Adam Hadwin: Hadwin has a history of strong performances at The American Express, including a 59 in 2017 and multiple top-10 finishes. While he may not be among the top-tier players you might want to save for major tournaments, his course history suggests he could be a valuable pick for this event.

We aren’t reinventing the wheel here. The tournament isn’t overly deep with talent so we are taking 2 guys near the top of the oddsmakers list. Good luck this week!

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Thanks for reading!

Enjoy the rest of your week,

Cody.