⛳️ Golf’s Ultimate Gut-Check: Can Anyone Survive Jack’s Place?

Scheffler’s on a tear, the Memorial’s a minefield, and even Rory’s skipping town—here’s why you can’t look away.

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Happy Valley Golf Team
May 28, 2025

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Good morning. This is your Happy Valley Golf Team newsletter. Let’s get it!

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

  • Discover why Muirfield Village humbles the world’s best—no mercy, no birdie-fests.

  • Will Scottie Scheffler make history, or will the course claim another victim?

  • Find out which underdogs and proven warriors could cash in big this week.

  • Get the sharpest betting angles and must-know stats before the action explodes.

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Golf's Toughest Test Returns to Jack's Place

This week's Memorial Tournament is basically golf's equivalent of that one professor who made organic chemistry feel like rocket science — except instead of failing pre-med dreams, it's crushing the hopes of the world's best golfers.

The PGA Tour's seventh signature event kicks off Thursday at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, where Jack Nicklaus has been serving up humble pie since 1976. And honestly? The Golden Bear designed this course like he had a personal vendetta against birdies.

Scottie's Quest for History

Scottie Scheffler is trying to do something nobody has accomplished since Tiger Woods was still rocking Nike swooshes and winning everything in sight — repeat as Memorial champion. The world No. 1 is coming off a PGA Championship victory and seems to have that "I'm going to win everything" energy that makes other pros weep into their protein shakes.

Scheffler's recent dominance is frankly ridiculous. Over his last three starts, he's won twice and finished T4, gaining over 10 strokes from tee to green. At this point, betting against him feels like betting against gravity (but we still aren’t doing it).

The Rory-Sized Hole in the Field

Plot twist: Rory McIlroy is pulling a no-show for the first time since 2017, opting instead to prep for the U.S. Open via the RBC Canadian Open. It's like LeBron skipping the playoffs to work on his jump shot — technically strategic, but also kind of wild.

This absence makes Scheffler's path to victory look even clearer, which is saying something considering he was already the +300 favorite.

The Usual Suspects Circle Like Vultures

Collin Morikawa has finished runner-up at this tournament twice, including last year when Scheffler broke his heart by one shot. If golf had a "most tortured by Muirfield Village" award, Morikawa would be the unanimous winner.

Xander Schauffele is working his way back from a rib injury that kept him out for two months earlier this year. He's been showing signs of life recently, which in golf terms means "only disappointed his fans moderately".

Patrick Cantlay has actually conquered this beast twice (2019, 2021) and knows how to navigate Jack's psychological warfare disguised as golf course architecture.

Course Intel: Where Dreams Go to Die

Muirfield Village is basically golf's equivalent of a final exam where the professor forgot to teach half the material. Here's what makes it brutal:

  • Par 72, 7,569 yards of pure intimidation

  • Winning scores have been single digits under par in three of the last five years

  • The greens are faster than your ex responding to someone else's texts

  • Miss the fairway? Enjoy the thick rough, deep bunkers, or penalty areas

This isn't some birdie-fest where you can spray it around and still contend. You need surgical precision off the tee and iron play that would make a robot jealous.

💰 Poeches Corner

Winner: Justin Thomas (+1800)

  • Key Stats: Leads the field in true strokes gained over the past six months, ranks 2nd in approach play, and has a win (RBC Heritage) and three runner-ups in 2025.

  • Course Fit: Lost in a playoff here in 2020 and thrives on demanding ball-striking layouts.

Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)

  • Key Stats: Gained +1.4 strokes tee-to-green in five straight events, including a T4 at Colonial last week.

  • Value: Odds underestimate his elite scrambling (3rd in field) and Muirfield’s emphasis on accuracy over distance.

Top 10: Si Woo Kim (+280)

  • Consistency: Top 20 at Muirfield in five consecutive years, including T8 at the PGA Championship.

  • Stats: Ranks 2nd in total strokes gained at Muirfield since 2020 and 11th in driving accuracy.

Top 10: Denny McCarthy (+360)

  • Course History: Playoff runner-up (2023) and T5 (2022); gained +6.2 strokes putting here last year.

  • Form: Seven top-25s in 2025, including T8 at Quail Hollow.

Top 20: Alex Noren (+185)

  • Value: 38.2% implied probability vs. +185 odds; T17 at PGA Championship and T4 here in 2023.

  • Stats: Top 15 in bogey avoidance and scrambling over past 24 rounds.

Course History Matters: This isn't your typical tour stop where course knowledge is optional. Past winners and consistent performers here deserve extra respect in your betting cards.

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The Bottom Line

The Memorial Tournament is where golf's elite go to get humbled by a 50-year-old course design. With $4 million going to the winner and 700 FedEx Cup points on the line, expect fireworks — the kind where everything explodes in spectacular fashion.

Scheffler might be the obvious choice, but Muirfield Village has a funny way of turning obvious choices into cautionary tales. Just ask anyone who's ever tried to hit it close on the redesigned 16th hole.

News You Need to Know

👉 PGA Tour ditching 'starting strokes' advantage in favor of regular 72-hole stroke play at Tour Championship

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Thanks for reading!

Enjoy the rest of your week,

Cody.